2. Critical Thinking

Frameworks & Models

Paul-Elder Critical Thinking Framework

Richard Paul & Linda Elder

Three components:

• Elements of Thought: purpose, question, information, inference, assumption, concepts, implications, point of view
• Intellectual Standards: clarity, accuracy, precision, relevance, depth, breadth, logic, significance, fairness
• Intellectual Traits

The most comprehensive academic model, adopted by hundreds of universities worldwide. Best-in-class because it provides both a diagnostic checklist and a developmental pathway.

Bloom's Taxonomy (Revised)

Anderson & Krathwohl, 2001

1. Remember
2. Understand
3. Apply
4. Analyze
5. Evaluate
6. Create

The universal framework for classifying cognitive rigor. Critical thinking lives at the Analyze-Evaluate-Create levels. Effective because it gives a concrete ladder from passive consumption to active judgment.

Bayesian Thinking / Probabilistic Reasoning

Update beliefs proportionally to evidence strength. Used by intelligence analysts (CIA), forecasters (Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock), and medical diagnosticians. Superior because it replaces binary "right/wrong" with calibrated confidence, reducing overconfidence — the single most documented cognitive failure.

Toulmin Model of Argumentation

Stephen Toulmin

1. Claim
2. Grounds
3. Warrant
4. Backing
5. Qualifier
6. Rebuttal

The standard model for evaluating argument quality in law, policy, and academic research. Its power is in making hidden assumptions (warrants) explicit.

Red Team / Pre-Mortem Analysis

• Red Teaming: adversarial stress-testing, originated in military intelligence
• Pre-Mortem (Gary Klein): asks "assume this failed — why?"

Both are now standard at Amazon, Google, and the US intelligence community. They work because they give social permission to dissent and surface risks before commitment bias sets in.

Mental Tools

Tool	Use Case	Why It Works
First Principles Thinking	Deconstructing assumptions	Strip away analogies and conventions to find foundational truths; prevents reasoning by analogy alone
Inversion (Charlie Munger)	Avoiding failure	"What would guarantee failure?" then avoid those things. Often easier and more reliable than optimizing for success
Falsification (Karl Popper)	Belief testing	Actively seek evidence that disproves your hypothesis. The single best antidote to confirmation bias
Steelman + Weakman pairing	Balanced evaluation	Construct the strongest AND weakest version of every argument before judging
The Ladder of Inference (Chris Argyris)	Metacognition	Traces the path from raw data → selection → interpretation → assumption → conclusion → action. Exposes where reasoning went wrong

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